The unity of the EU27 is preserved but may still be tested in the event of major disputes. As you may know, Social Europe is an independent publisher. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law are strengthened in areas where we choose to do more and reduced elsewhere. The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), together with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES), has been intensively working since 2019 to monitor the EU gender equality policy agenda through a progressive lens focusing particularly on its care dimensions. Please try again. The EU is defined by its ‘pillars’: the single market and free movement, the euro and the Stability and Growth Pact, and competition and state-aid law. The effects of this crisis on the real economy will last for a long time, meaning that Europe will not soon get back to normal. These three pillars are being shaken by the pandemic and they are sure to be at the centre of debates on the future of Europe. And at what scale—the Schengen area or groups of countries with similar risk levels (Benelux, the Baltic states, the Iberian peninsula), as the European Commission seems to be suggesting? The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union. This may widen the gap between expectations and delivery at all levels. Digital transformation will bring comprehensive changes for companies. These may cover policies such as defence, internal security, taxation or social matters. The second and key factor is reduction of working time. The European Union Focuses on delivering more and faster in selected policy areas, while doing less elsewhere. As a result, the EU27 is able to act much quicker and more decisively in its chosen priority areas. Ultimately, a clearer division of responsibilities helps European citizens to better understand what is handled at EU27, national and regional level. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and can be combined and developed in parallel in different regions of the world, depending on the relevant balance of power. National borders As regards the free movement of people, the closing once more of national borders has been a highly symbolic trend, demonstrating that ‘other’ Europeans are still considered as potentially dangerous, disease-carrying foreigners. Instead, scenarios were synthesized based on common features of scenarios that have been developed in the past. As regards the free movement of people, the closing once more of national borders has been a highly symbolic trend, demonstrating that ‘other’ Europeans are still considered as potentially dangerous, disease-carrying foreigners. Seen this way, the third scenario could greatly resemble the first. The calls of certain governments, such as in the Czech Republic, and sectoral actors to forget the European Green Deal underline the strength of this scenario. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law may become restricted over time. This was what eminent researchers have called the strange non-death of neoliberalism. I… It focuses on excellence in R&D and invests in new EU-wide projects to support decarbonisation and digitisation. Will the role of the state in the economy, whether direct or indirect, be focused on ‘rescuing’ traditional sectors (air transport, oil or vehicle production) or will it be to push us towards an ecological transformation? A group of Member States decides to cooperate much closer on defence matters, making use of the existing legal possibilities. Eurofound has monitored and analysed developments in industrial relations systems at EU level and in EU member states for over 40 years. What kind of Europe will take shape after the coronavirus crisis? Now please check your email to confirm your subscription. There is an active movement towards Flemish independence (scenarios sometimes include and sometimes exclude Brussels), or union with the Netherlands, with the future status of Wallonia and Brussels (the de facto capital of the EU) unclear as viable political states, perhaps producing a unique situation from Scotland and Catalonia. Defence and security are prioritised. future trajectory of the region: the scenarios do not just spell out what 2025 could look like, they also explain how decisions with far-reaching consequences taken at critical junctures (called game-changers) will shape this future between today and then. CESI on future scenarios of a social EU. With its biggest veto player gone, might the European Pillar of Social Rights take centre stage? They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. In a scenario where there is consensus that neither the EU27 as it is, nor European countries on their own, are well-equipped enough to face the challenges of the day, Member States decide to share more power, resources and decision-making across the board. Scenario 2: Nothing but the single market. We aren't backed by a large publishing house or big advertising partners. The European Union decides to do much more together across all policy areas. Based on research about demographics, health, social inequalities and the environment, INHERIT presents four positive scenarios of what Europe could look like in 2040. This proves easier for the free movement of capital and of goods, which continues tariff-free, than it does in other areas. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. The EU’s re-centred priorities mean that differences of views between Member States on new emerging issues often need to be solved bilaterally, on a caseby-case basis. The EU27 steps up its work in fields such as innovation, trade, security, migration, the management of borders and defence. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. Earlier this month, the European Commission put out a white paper that envisages five scenarios for the EU by 2025. The Reference Scenario - summary of main results 3. Likewise, they deliberately make no mention of legal or institutional processes – the form will follow the function. Priorities are regularly updated, problems are tackled as they arise and new legislation is rolled out accordingly. In a scenario where there is a consensus on the need to better tackle certain priorities together, the EU27 decides to focus its attention and limited resources on a reduced number of areas. The key question would be whether co-operative protectionism (aimed at achieving the same goal) rather than antagonistic protectionism (winning against others) gained the upper hand. To some extent, the hard Brexit would resemble the EU deal with Canada - the so-called CETA or the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) which gives Canada preferential access to the EU single market for 99% of goods. Robust and consistent EU response: This scenario is set against major events experienced in the EU over recent years, such as the Great Recession, the refugee crisis, Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Future Migration Scenarios for Europe project is working together with other Horizon 2020 projects, such as the QuantMig Project, the Hummingbird Project, and the CrossMigration Project, to explore and communicate about core migration issues in Europe and beyond. “Nothing but the single market”. There is no shared resolve to work more together in areas such as migration, security or defence. As for the EU’s external borders, the example of China suggests strict ‘cocooning’ of the national territory vis-à-vis the outside world, having overcome the internal health crisis, is set to be the norm. In the context of a monetary union devoid of solidarity mechanisms and without supranational political governance, the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact have been (temporarily) suspended—in sharp contrast to the eurozone crisis. The second key element is the ‘scenario logic’ which constitutes the core of the process. In this document, the European Commission (2017) outlined five tentative scenarios for the EU, varying from broad to narrow institutional and political integration, as listed below: “Carrying on”. The relevant unit becomes the national territory—with social control ramped up with the help of 5G networks. The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. The European Union is gradually re-centred on the single market. The European Parliament has the final say on international trade agreements. The European Commission has outlined five scenarios for the future of the European Union in a white paper obtained by POLITICO ahead of its publication on Wednesday. Citizens’ rights derived from EU law start to vary depending on whether or not they live in a country that has chosen to do more. In the European Union, the very foundations of European integration are being questioned. Only a collective resolve to deliver jointly on the things that matter will help close the gap between promises on paper and citizens’ expectations. ‘Wir schaffen das’, Putting the brakes on the spread of indecent work, Cancelling a debt we already own has a false allure, Fissures that tear us apart and pressures that weigh us all down. They are not detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions. In the absence of a common approach to managing the health crisis, most likely will be the persistence of more or less tight internal borders for a long time. Findings are placed in the context of the key developments in EU policy affecting employment, working conditions and social policy, and linked to the work done by social partners—as well as public authorities—at European and national levels. The consequences of these seemingly technical choices vary greatly in terms of their fiscal and, manifestly, social impact. On top of the eurozone crisis, the European economy … Three scenarios are outlined for Europe and its international role in 2030. “Doing less more efficiently”. The Reference Scnerario - presentation of main results 4. On the international scene, Europe speaks and acts as one in trade and is represented by one seat in most international fora. It’s now clear the Covid-19 pandemic will have major, long-term consequences. It took us a global pandemic to realise that we depend on care. Collapse scenario One element is the ‘decision-focus’ of the scenarios, which means that the process begins and ends not with vision of the future, but with agreement on the strategic decision which the scenarios should be designed to illuminate. We are seeing the seeds of this, with several governments and civil-society players supporting the Green Deal and certain cities, such as Paris and Brussels, showing the way to a faster transition—albeit one very difficult to complete amid high unemployment and economic crisis. This helps to close the gap between promise and delivery, even if expectations remain unmet in certain domains. The positive agenda of action continues to deliver concrete results, based on a shared sense of purpose. Here again, the example of the US under Donald Trump, above all with the possibility of a second term, is telling. It develops new rules and enforcement tools to deepen the single market in key new areas. Citizens have more rights derived directly from EU law. The European Union Focuses on delivering its positive reform agenda. Dr Sabine Selchow, ARC-Laureate Program in International History, University of Sydney, and Conflict and Civil Society Research Unit, London School of Economics (LSE) - Civil Society in the EU: future scenarios … Reminiscent of the Belle Époque, this would be nothing less than an end-of-the-world party. This book brings together leading experts in European politics and policy to examine social citizenship rights across the European continent in the wake of Brexit. The main outputs from the EU Reference Scenario 2016 are 1. The pilot study did not develop new migration scenarios for Europe. RE No. Read the White Paper on the Future of Europe. Philippe Pochet is general director of the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI). Scenarios are an important tool in mapping possible futures for the Union as they bring underlying trends into focus. Explore the EU Reference Scenario 2016 with interactive graphs. Thank you very much for your interest! Excel sheets with EU and EU country results The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in these interactive graphs, develope… This new flagship report provides an overview of developments in industrial relations and social dialogue in the years immediately prior to the Covid-19 outbreak. And while the previous crisis did not allow of any progress towards the supranational governance of the currency, this one will be the last opportunity to do so. This is done in the spirit of the Commission’s New Start for Europe in 2014 and of the Bratislava Declaration agreed by all 27 Member States in 2016. On 15 February 2018 afternoon Group III held an extraordinary meeting for the presentation of a study promoted in cooperation with the Liaison Group on The future … Changes in the law are not sufficient, on their own, to ensure decent working conditions, however. In particular, the authors focus on those who work entirely on their own account, without employees (ie the ‘solo self-employed’), and who undertake project- or task-based work on a fixed-term basis. This in turn allows different choices from before. However, there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities. The post-crisis EU—assuming it survives—could have very different foundations if the questioning of the three pillars continues. At its last meeting of the old year in December 2017 the Presidium of CESI adopted a new position paper on priorities for a more social Europe. The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union. The fact that this health crisis could be recurrent opens up possibilities for more authoritarian governments, such as in Hungary and Poland, to assert themselves as the guarantors of their citizens’ safety and security. 2018-01-19 12:00. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden? This scenario goes hand-in-hand with global fragmentation and a more or less radical ‘deglobalisation’. And should consumption not really pick up again, calls for recovery would give new impetus to demands for less account to be taken of environmental concerns and for greater labour-market ‘flexibility’ at the expense of workers. True, it’s difficult to see austerity being applied to the public sector in one or two years’ time. 'This book correctly emphasises the need to place the future of social rights in Europe front and centre in the post-Brexit debate, to move on from the economistic bias that has obscured our vision of a progressive social Europe.' Finally, the relaxation of state-aid restrictions and the rescue of companies in distress will reconfigure what is considered possible and legitimate. Four scenarios, widely varying in their social and ecological consequences, are possible. In a scenario where the EU27 sticks to its course, it focuses on implementing and upgrading its current reform agenda. On the one hand, the geopolitical and global growth context in which we will progress, and on the other, the ability of European society to move towards new, more sustainable models at a technological, environmental, social and productive level. There are many different possible ways of developing scenarios. The first (contrary to what I have written before) is a possible return to neoliberal orthodoxy—a  bit like the previous crisis (2008-13), when Europe reverted even more radically to neoliberal fundamentals after a more or less green recovery in 2009. Whether we resort to ‘helicopter’ money or ‘coronabonds’ or stick to the European Stability Mechanism—how the recovery is financed and what type of recovery it is—will greatly affect the future. Michael D Higgins, president of Ireland. New legislation providing for enhanced inspection on health and safety, together with a ban on contract work and limitations on the use of temporary agency employees, holds out the prospect of a profound change in employment practices and labour relations in the meat industry. Will member states see an enhanced social Europe or a race to the bottom? Decision-making may be simpler to understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited. The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. We suggest here one possible approach that we could define as a ‘walk through the process’ divided in six steps with two important elements. This scenario would still require the UK to pay a divorce settlement to the EU as part of a withdrawal treaty. But, here again, what will happen after? The following four scenarios were evaluated, discussed and developed by experts in 15 cities all over Europe. Our future scenarios for 2040 www.inherit.eu 12. In a scenario where the EU27 cannot agree to do more in many policy areas, it increasingly focuses on deepening certain key aspects of the single market. So what might this future look like? We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Over the course of 2020, repeated outbreaks of Covid-19 in a number of large German meat-processing plants led to renewed public concern about the longstanding labour abuses in this industry. In both scenarios, changes in supply and demand lead to lower meat and grain prices, while butter, cheese and poultry prices are less affected. Future 2040 Scenarios. EU states will have until the end of the year to decide on the future vision of a European Union following a European Commission proposal outlining five broad scenarios. in the economic and migration dimensions. Questions arise about the transparency and accountability of the different layers of decision-making. The third scenario is a return to growth at any price, with unfettered catch-up consumption without any consideration for the environment. "Social Europe publishes thought-provoking articles on the big political and economic issues of our time analysed from a European viewpoint. There are four possible scenarios. Future scenarios as a tool to understand the future of Europe and discover common ground. The Commission presented five different scenarios for the future of the EU. Moreover, are the institutional innovations being adopted temporary or longer-term—is the SURE initiative (supporting short-time work arrangements) the beginning of an EU unemployment-reinsurance system? Two factors are set to have a decisive influence. Despite all the clapping from the balconies, care workers continue to work in precarious and vulnerable conditions. The scenarios were used to explore policy implications of different political, economic and migration developments for specific thematic areas of EU policymaking: foreign and security policy, labour “Those who want more do more”. Typically, migration scenario studies identify the most impactful and uncertain factors that will affect migration in the future. Further progress depends on the capacity to agree related policies and standards. politics, economy and employment & labour, by Philippe Pochet on 30th April 2020 @philippepochet. There is far greater and quicker decision-making at EU level. Civil society in the EU: future scenarios for 2030. This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case. The first is the partial relocation of production chains and a certain environmental protectionism, which in extremis could have a lot in common with the second, nationalistic scenario. The coronavirus crisis and the welfare state. They therefore serve not merely as a … In my view it is strategically the most important aspect in structuring upcoming debates. The unity of the EU at 27 is preserved while further cooperation is made possible for those who want. Extrapolating findings of studies that take different dimensions of EU support as their dependent variable (Boomgaarden et al., 2011; Van Elsas et al., 2016), some people may prefer an intermediate future scenario, where the EU is reformed but not completely dissolved, over more extreme hard or soft scenarios – and different variables will explain these preferences. The study ‘The future evolution of civil society in the European Union by 2030’, commissioned by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) in the framework of the annual study programme for 2017, is in the process of being finalised. INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Future Scenarios for the Eurozone 15 Perspectives on the Euro Crisis SCENARIO TEAM EUROZONE 2020 March 2013 The Eurozone is standing at a crossroads, facing the biggest challenges in its history: the systemic crisis … While it would obviously have a positive impact on conventional economic indicators (such as gross domestic product) and would reduce bankruptcies and unemployment in the short and medium term, it would have major long-term consequences. This poses very delicate questions. The EU agricultural outlook describes several scenarios, including a slow recovery and a green recovery from 2020. Rare2030 policy scenarios With the information collected through the knowledge base and trends identified through the Rare2030 Foresight study, the Panel of Experts put together four possible future scenarios depicting what the world may be like for people living with a rare disease in 2030.